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Saturday, October 10, 2009

The Fantasy Man's Week 5 FantasyWorld Guide

This game is freakin' torture...... but I love it! It just goes to show that even the best of the best in fantasy sports can't consistently predict performances on a week to week basis. No, I'm not talking about me, I'm talking in general! I'm surprised anyone is even still reading this! I have 3 slots left..... QB, Offense and Defense. I have used all my flags and have had just about the worst luck possible like using Santana Moss a week before the explosion, or using Greg Jennings with a flag and get 103 yards and no TD. How about using Zach Miller the first week and finding out the Raider can't combine for more than 29 yards total in a game. Unbelieveable! So the first request here is...... if you guys have any horror stories with your picks these first few weeks, feel free to jot them down below in the comments section. I want to here how some of these players have screwed you they way some have screwed me!

Anyway, onto week 5. This is a great week for matchups with many possible one-sided games like the Giants over Oakland, Pittsburgh over Detroit, Dallas over Kansas City, Philly over Tampa Bay, and Minnesota over St. Louis to name the no brainers so it's these games where we may want to concentrate our efforts. These are also great games to consider in the normal survivor pools.

Now that we're all starting to slowly leak positions every week is getting more crucial when it comes to making smart picks. For me, it's knowing which defenses are weakest but it's not just the total defense, it's knowing which defenses are weakest in regards to pass and run. While Kansas City, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Cleveland are 28th-32nd, in that order, have the weakest total defenses, Arizona is and Tennessee is 30th and 32nd in pass defense and San Diego, Houston and Carolina 28th, 29th, and 32nd in run defense. Point is, don't just look at the total defense. Use Running Backs who play against San Diego, Houston and Carolina and use Wide Receivers who play against Tennessee, Arizona, Jacksonville, etc. .

With that being said....

I might be a little leary on Eli Manning's injured heel and I don't know if I trust Donovan McNabb this week as one knock to the ribs and it could be lights out early in the game. Peyton Manning against the worst pass defense in the league, Ben Roethlisberger against the Lions, and Matt Schaub against Arizona are pretty much no brainers for 200 yards and a TD.
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub

Running Backs
Carolina has the worst run defense in the league which means maybe a solid outing from Clinton Portis. Brandon Jacobs has been half a bust this year too since he's not getting the goal line carries but the Giants play a weak run defense in Oakland and Jacobs makes for a great pick. If you really want to get sneaky, I still feel like Larry Johnson is going to bust out a big game one of these days and he's up against Dallas who has a weak defense as well. That's a super risky play since Johnson has played like poop, but if your desperate, why not take a shot?! Two other RB's that pop out at me are Michael Bush in Oakland and Knoshawn Moreno in Denver. With Moreno, Correll Buckhalter is out for Sunday. With Bush, the Oakland pass is terrible so they'll probably depend on Bush and Justin Fargas. One of those two guys could have a 60 yard 1 TD game as all Oakland is going to do is run!
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis, Brandon Jacobs

Wide Receivers
Terrell Owens has been a huge bust this year but Cleveland is 21st against the pass giving up 226 yards a game. Reggie Wayne certainly makes for a great pick as Tennessee is worst in the league against the pass while Wayne gives you a great opportunity to actually get the TD. I'm also liking Santonio Holmes or Hines Ward against the Lions. Holmes has been slumping but due for a breakout while Ward has been solid all season and is Big Ben's go-to guy. Mike Sims-Walker has busted out of nowhere the last two weeks and he's a guy with a ton of talent mixed with size and explosiveness. He's probably fantasy's best kept secret right now. If he blows up this week, he'll be gone from every waiver wire! Grab him now and take a shot with him this week against Seattle. I might be a little leary on Steve Smith or Mario Manningham because of Eli Manning's injured heel and I just don't know if I want to recommend Santana Moss who has been hot the last two weeks.
The Fantasy Man Recommends: T.O., Reggie Wayne, Hines Ward, Mike Sims-Walker

Tight Ends
There's not many options out there you can trust. Brent Celek and Chris Cooley jump out at you but if you've used the best, Marcedes Lewis in Jacksonville has been putting up some quiet numbers. Visanthe Shiancoe makes sense as well since it looks like Brett Farve is having a decent year and plays a somewhat weak defense in St. Louis.
The Fantasy man Recommends: Brent Celek, Visanthe Shiancoe, Marcedes Lewis

As for Offense and Defense, I kind of already mentioned the way to go above. Going both ways with the Giants, Vikings, Steelers and Eagles makes sense as the teams with 24+ point potential offenses and 19 points or fewer for defense.

That's it. Let's keep it simple this week, don't over think it. The matchups are easy this week and should make for easy choices, or so it seems. Feel free to send your horror picks in the comenst section below and if you're signing up for the Week 8 game, make sure you join my Fight Club (Team Fantasy Man)!

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