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Friday, October 2, 2009

The Fantasy Man's Week 4 Fantasy World Guide

I'd first like to send a shout out to Greg Jennings and Fred Jackson for screwing me in week three by each not scoring touchdowns. Thanks guys. I appreciate it. I did predict that these gentlemen would have solid games but it just goes to show you how tough it is to predict specific performances and thus making this $1,000,000 prize quite the feat if someone can legitimately do it.

So on to week 4 we go and like each week before, there seems to be some easy picks but let's get started and see where this takes us....

Quarterbacks
The one team that seems to make the most sense across the board is the Indianapolis Colts who host the Seattle Seahawks in what should be a blow out of some kind. Seattle is suffering through numerous injuries which should make for an easy day for Peyton Manning and a no brainer choice for this game. What can you say about Mark Sanchez? He reminds me of Ben Roethlisberger a few years ago and New Orleans doesn't have the best defense out there so I like Sanchez' chances of throwing for 200 yards and a TD. It's a risk, but it's a good chance to use a lower ranked player against a team that has given up an average of 267 passing yards per game. Matt Schaub makes for a great choice against Oakland and Jay Cutler against the Lions which is one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. This week might also be a good week to get Eli Manning out there. Eli has been fantastic this year and we know the Chiefs don't have a great defense so I like the potential here too.
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Peyton Manning (safe), Jay Cutler (safe), Eli Manning (moderate), Mark Sanchez (risky), Kyle Orton (sleeper)


Running Backs
Running backs has been a somewhat predictable position in this game but many of us made the assumption that Fred Jackson was going to make a statement in his final full touch game last week. Jackson is 4th in the NFL in rushing so I don't think he'll land on the bench as much as some think, but we certainly can't use Jackson this week. Cedric Benson makes for a no brainer pick against Cleveland as he's been the biggest force in the Bengals offense so far this season. We thought Brandon Jacobs was going to bust out last week against the Bucs but now we think it's going to happen this week against the Chiefs. Plus, throw in the fact that Ahmad Bradshaw might be limited this week with an injury, it should mean that Jacobs should handle more of the load. If Jacobs doesn't score a TD this week, I'm giving up!
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Cedric Benson (safe), Brandon Jacobs (moderate)

Wide Receivers
Uh.... no comment. It doesn't matter what I say here because the opposite will happen. Do you pick Steve Smith or Mario Manningham? Who knows, but I like Smith because is the go-to guy for Eli. T.O. was a none factor last week but has an easy matchup against the Dolphins and should be in for a big game. Chad OchoCinco against Cleveland is a no brainer, and Brandon Marshall against the Cowboys could be a nice sleeper pick. Devin Hester and Jericho Cotchery also make nice sleeper picks while Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne seem like the safest picks. Does anyone even have their WR slots left???
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Andre Johnson (safe), Reggie Wayne (safe), Chad OchoCinco (moderate), Terrell Owens (moderate), Devin Hester (sleeper), Brandon Marshall (sleeper)


Tight Ends
It's been tough to pick TE's the last few weeks so we'll keep it simple. Huge game last week from Vernon Davis who is San Fran's best WR and they're playing St. Louis. Greg Olsen's performance last week was encouraging and Chicago plays one of the worst defenses in the league.
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Vernon Davis, Greg Olsen, Dallas Clark, Owen Daniels, Kevin Boss,


Offense
As I mentioned earlier, the Colts seem like the team of the week with the easiest game. They rarely lose at home and Seattle is broken down right now with injuries. The Cincinnati Bengals are hot right now and I don't think playing away at Cleveland should be too tough. Cincy is your sneaky pick of the week and is a great opportunity to knock out a risky team early to save some of the better teams for later. Houston was my sleeper team going into this season and although they've been giving up points, they've been scoring plenty while Oakland has shown they're not ready to win games. Of course, whoever plays St. Louis or Detroit is always a recommendation as well.
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Indianapolis, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Houston, Chicago

Defense
Many of the big defenses are playing other good defensive teams so this is a tough week. I certainly like Cincinnati against Cleveland, Indianapolis against Seattle, and the Giants against the Chiefs. Those seem like no brainer games. San Fransicco against the Rams is a good one as the Rams' Mark Bulger will be out on top of the fact that the Rams stink.
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Indianaplolis, New York Giants, Cincinnati, San Francisco

Strategy to Think About
Keep in mind that as you are choosing players, you are also accumulating points as you go. This makes it even more important to play the matchups. You want to pick the players who will not only score the minimum, but you want players who have the opportunity to break out each week so you can move your team up the Fantasy World standings. While Cedric Benson for example seems like an easy pick, there's no question that we're all waiting for Brandon Jacobs to bust out that 3 TD kind of game. It's just something to think about. While sneaking in and taking Cincinnati to beat Cleveland, it's probable that Indianapolis will blow out Seattle and score more Fantasy World points. Obviously if you use Indy now, the less risky team, you risk having to count on risky teams later. Just something to think about. Me personally, I'm looking at the games where I can maximize points while still making sure my positions survive. So using Indy now as an offense with all the Seattle defensive injuries and Indy as defense while Matt Hasselbeck is injured makes a lot of sense, as does using Peyton Manning this week. It's all about Indianspolis and we might be putting all our eggs in one basket, but if Manning delivers, we'll be in for another week of survival!


Good luck in Week 4!

2 comments:

Freddy said...

awesome! I took Cincinati at DEF, thinking that I was crazy. Now I know I am. :-) thanks FM!

Tony Karrer said...

Dang Mike - Jay Cutler and Cedric Benson didn't survive this week. Sheesh. Time to start using my flags.