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Saturday, October 10, 2009

The Fantasy Man's Week 5 FantasyWorld Guide

This game is freakin' torture...... but I love it! It just goes to show that even the best of the best in fantasy sports can't consistently predict performances on a week to week basis. No, I'm not talking about me, I'm talking in general! I'm surprised anyone is even still reading this! I have 3 slots left..... QB, Offense and Defense. I have used all my flags and have had just about the worst luck possible like using Santana Moss a week before the explosion, or using Greg Jennings with a flag and get 103 yards and no TD. How about using Zach Miller the first week and finding out the Raider can't combine for more than 29 yards total in a game. Unbelieveable! So the first request here is...... if you guys have any horror stories with your picks these first few weeks, feel free to jot them down below in the comments section. I want to here how some of these players have screwed you they way some have screwed me!

Anyway, onto week 5. This is a great week for matchups with many possible one-sided games like the Giants over Oakland, Pittsburgh over Detroit, Dallas over Kansas City, Philly over Tampa Bay, and Minnesota over St. Louis to name the no brainers so it's these games where we may want to concentrate our efforts. These are also great games to consider in the normal survivor pools.

Now that we're all starting to slowly leak positions every week is getting more crucial when it comes to making smart picks. For me, it's knowing which defenses are weakest but it's not just the total defense, it's knowing which defenses are weakest in regards to pass and run. While Kansas City, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Cleveland are 28th-32nd, in that order, have the weakest total defenses, Arizona is and Tennessee is 30th and 32nd in pass defense and San Diego, Houston and Carolina 28th, 29th, and 32nd in run defense. Point is, don't just look at the total defense. Use Running Backs who play against San Diego, Houston and Carolina and use Wide Receivers who play against Tennessee, Arizona, Jacksonville, etc. .

With that being said....

I might be a little leary on Eli Manning's injured heel and I don't know if I trust Donovan McNabb this week as one knock to the ribs and it could be lights out early in the game. Peyton Manning against the worst pass defense in the league, Ben Roethlisberger against the Lions, and Matt Schaub against Arizona are pretty much no brainers for 200 yards and a TD.
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub

Running Backs
Carolina has the worst run defense in the league which means maybe a solid outing from Clinton Portis. Brandon Jacobs has been half a bust this year too since he's not getting the goal line carries but the Giants play a weak run defense in Oakland and Jacobs makes for a great pick. If you really want to get sneaky, I still feel like Larry Johnson is going to bust out a big game one of these days and he's up against Dallas who has a weak defense as well. That's a super risky play since Johnson has played like poop, but if your desperate, why not take a shot?! Two other RB's that pop out at me are Michael Bush in Oakland and Knoshawn Moreno in Denver. With Moreno, Correll Buckhalter is out for Sunday. With Bush, the Oakland pass is terrible so they'll probably depend on Bush and Justin Fargas. One of those two guys could have a 60 yard 1 TD game as all Oakland is going to do is run!
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis, Brandon Jacobs

Wide Receivers
Terrell Owens has been a huge bust this year but Cleveland is 21st against the pass giving up 226 yards a game. Reggie Wayne certainly makes for a great pick as Tennessee is worst in the league against the pass while Wayne gives you a great opportunity to actually get the TD. I'm also liking Santonio Holmes or Hines Ward against the Lions. Holmes has been slumping but due for a breakout while Ward has been solid all season and is Big Ben's go-to guy. Mike Sims-Walker has busted out of nowhere the last two weeks and he's a guy with a ton of talent mixed with size and explosiveness. He's probably fantasy's best kept secret right now. If he blows up this week, he'll be gone from every waiver wire! Grab him now and take a shot with him this week against Seattle. I might be a little leary on Steve Smith or Mario Manningham because of Eli Manning's injured heel and I just don't know if I want to recommend Santana Moss who has been hot the last two weeks.
The Fantasy Man Recommends: T.O., Reggie Wayne, Hines Ward, Mike Sims-Walker

Tight Ends
There's not many options out there you can trust. Brent Celek and Chris Cooley jump out at you but if you've used the best, Marcedes Lewis in Jacksonville has been putting up some quiet numbers. Visanthe Shiancoe makes sense as well since it looks like Brett Farve is having a decent year and plays a somewhat weak defense in St. Louis.
The Fantasy man Recommends: Brent Celek, Visanthe Shiancoe, Marcedes Lewis

As for Offense and Defense, I kind of already mentioned the way to go above. Going both ways with the Giants, Vikings, Steelers and Eagles makes sense as the teams with 24+ point potential offenses and 19 points or fewer for defense.

That's it. Let's keep it simple this week, don't over think it. The matchups are easy this week and should make for easy choices, or so it seems. Feel free to send your horror picks in the comenst section below and if you're signing up for the Week 8 game, make sure you join my Fight Club (Team Fantasy Man)!

Friday, October 2, 2009

The Fantasy Man's Week 4 Fantasy World Guide

I'd first like to send a shout out to Greg Jennings and Fred Jackson for screwing me in week three by each not scoring touchdowns. Thanks guys. I appreciate it. I did predict that these gentlemen would have solid games but it just goes to show you how tough it is to predict specific performances and thus making this $1,000,000 prize quite the feat if someone can legitimately do it.

So on to week 4 we go and like each week before, there seems to be some easy picks but let's get started and see where this takes us....

The one team that seems to make the most sense across the board is the Indianapolis Colts who host the Seattle Seahawks in what should be a blow out of some kind. Seattle is suffering through numerous injuries which should make for an easy day for Peyton Manning and a no brainer choice for this game. What can you say about Mark Sanchez? He reminds me of Ben Roethlisberger a few years ago and New Orleans doesn't have the best defense out there so I like Sanchez' chances of throwing for 200 yards and a TD. It's a risk, but it's a good chance to use a lower ranked player against a team that has given up an average of 267 passing yards per game. Matt Schaub makes for a great choice against Oakland and Jay Cutler against the Lions which is one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. This week might also be a good week to get Eli Manning out there. Eli has been fantastic this year and we know the Chiefs don't have a great defense so I like the potential here too.
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Peyton Manning (safe), Jay Cutler (safe), Eli Manning (moderate), Mark Sanchez (risky), Kyle Orton (sleeper)

Running Backs
Running backs has been a somewhat predictable position in this game but many of us made the assumption that Fred Jackson was going to make a statement in his final full touch game last week. Jackson is 4th in the NFL in rushing so I don't think he'll land on the bench as much as some think, but we certainly can't use Jackson this week. Cedric Benson makes for a no brainer pick against Cleveland as he's been the biggest force in the Bengals offense so far this season. We thought Brandon Jacobs was going to bust out last week against the Bucs but now we think it's going to happen this week against the Chiefs. Plus, throw in the fact that Ahmad Bradshaw might be limited this week with an injury, it should mean that Jacobs should handle more of the load. If Jacobs doesn't score a TD this week, I'm giving up!
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Cedric Benson (safe), Brandon Jacobs (moderate)

Wide Receivers
Uh.... no comment. It doesn't matter what I say here because the opposite will happen. Do you pick Steve Smith or Mario Manningham? Who knows, but I like Smith because is the go-to guy for Eli. T.O. was a none factor last week but has an easy matchup against the Dolphins and should be in for a big game. Chad OchoCinco against Cleveland is a no brainer, and Brandon Marshall against the Cowboys could be a nice sleeper pick. Devin Hester and Jericho Cotchery also make nice sleeper picks while Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne seem like the safest picks. Does anyone even have their WR slots left???
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Andre Johnson (safe), Reggie Wayne (safe), Chad OchoCinco (moderate), Terrell Owens (moderate), Devin Hester (sleeper), Brandon Marshall (sleeper)

Tight Ends
It's been tough to pick TE's the last few weeks so we'll keep it simple. Huge game last week from Vernon Davis who is San Fran's best WR and they're playing St. Louis. Greg Olsen's performance last week was encouraging and Chicago plays one of the worst defenses in the league.
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Vernon Davis, Greg Olsen, Dallas Clark, Owen Daniels, Kevin Boss,

As I mentioned earlier, the Colts seem like the team of the week with the easiest game. They rarely lose at home and Seattle is broken down right now with injuries. The Cincinnati Bengals are hot right now and I don't think playing away at Cleveland should be too tough. Cincy is your sneaky pick of the week and is a great opportunity to knock out a risky team early to save some of the better teams for later. Houston was my sleeper team going into this season and although they've been giving up points, they've been scoring plenty while Oakland has shown they're not ready to win games. Of course, whoever plays St. Louis or Detroit is always a recommendation as well.
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Indianapolis, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Houston, Chicago

Many of the big defenses are playing other good defensive teams so this is a tough week. I certainly like Cincinnati against Cleveland, Indianapolis against Seattle, and the Giants against the Chiefs. Those seem like no brainer games. San Fransicco against the Rams is a good one as the Rams' Mark Bulger will be out on top of the fact that the Rams stink.
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Indianaplolis, New York Giants, Cincinnati, San Francisco

Strategy to Think About
Keep in mind that as you are choosing players, you are also accumulating points as you go. This makes it even more important to play the matchups. You want to pick the players who will not only score the minimum, but you want players who have the opportunity to break out each week so you can move your team up the Fantasy World standings. While Cedric Benson for example seems like an easy pick, there's no question that we're all waiting for Brandon Jacobs to bust out that 3 TD kind of game. It's just something to think about. While sneaking in and taking Cincinnati to beat Cleveland, it's probable that Indianapolis will blow out Seattle and score more Fantasy World points. Obviously if you use Indy now, the less risky team, you risk having to count on risky teams later. Just something to think about. Me personally, I'm looking at the games where I can maximize points while still making sure my positions survive. So using Indy now as an offense with all the Seattle defensive injuries and Indy as defense while Matt Hasselbeck is injured makes a lot of sense, as does using Peyton Manning this week. It's all about Indianspolis and we might be putting all our eggs in one basket, but if Manning delivers, we'll be in for another week of survival!

Good luck in Week 4!