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Wednesday, September 23, 2009

The Fantasy Man's Week 3 Fantasy World Fantasy Guide

It looks like it was a pretty tough week for fantasy guru's at www.FantasyWorld.com . Positions were dropping like flys as the day progressed on Sunday. How about those people who picked Randy Moss in this great survivor pool game, or the guy who listened to me and picked the Redskins to slash the Rams? Tough week! It's a new week though and there are a ton of opportunities to gain more points and get yourself back into the running at least for that $10,000. If you are still in the running for the million, good luck!

Last week we talked about some basic strategies as well as my personal Fantasy Man strategy. To remind you, I am looking to pick lower ranked players (outside of the top 20 at each position) who either will fade down the stretch or who have yet to fully prove themselves. I'm looking at players who aren't the obvious but have a great chance to cover the numbers we need. Then, in the middle to later weeks I will start to fuse in the superstuds with solid matchups. I'm still sticking with it despite having to use a few flags this week. Below is what I am thinking by position.

Quarterbacks
One player that jumps off the page at me is Aaron Rodgers because he gets to throw against St. Louis. Now, for any of you who chose Santana Moss last week knows the Rams were actually able to post soild defensive numbers to keep the Redskins from advancing in this game. Problem there is that Washington's Jason Campbell is not throwing the ball well. I do not feel that Rodgers will have the same problem. He's on his way to being an elite QB and I am also looking at the fact that Greg Jennings, the Packers best WR, has so far been a non-factor. I think that changes this week as Rodgers finds a way to hook up with Jennings. Matt Schaub has a great matchup this week against Jacksonville who made Kurt Warner look like the 2007 Tom Brady. Philip Rivers against Miami is a solid matchup as well. Rivers was solid against Baltimore who is one of the league's best defenses and since Miami is better against the run, there's a good chance Rivers will air it out. There's not many lower ranked players here I trust for a week so I am sticking with solid plays here all the way through.

The Fantasy Man's Recommends: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers

Running Backs
I'm lovin' Brandon Jacobs this week against Tampa Bay. Their run defenses has holes (See Fred Jackson last week) and Jacobs is oozing with big game potential. I'm not saying this because I'm a Giants fan but it looks like the Redskins and Cowboys really honed in on Jacobs the last two weeks. And, let's be honest, are any of you guys worried about Jacobs getting a TD? No, it's the 60+ yards that's been tough. I think that changes this week. I like Fred Jackson this week because it's potentially his last week to carry the load with Marshawn Lynch eligible to come back in week 4. Jackson has been a superstud these past two weeks and I just have a hunch he wants to do his best to keep these carries coming. Plus, it's an opportunity to use a player for your RB slot that ranked no where near the top 20 when the season started making him extremely valuable this week for this game. Felix Jones is another guy like Jackson who ranked low in drafts but could be usable this week if Marion Barber is out. ESPN says Barber is 50/50. If Barber is out and Jones starts, he's almost guaranteed to drop 60+ and a TD, he's too explosive not too. One other player that fits this mold is Darren Sproles. Same situation, ranked low, and LaDanian Tomlinson probably out make Sproles against Miami a solid pick too. These last 3 players I mentioned fit The Fantasy Man strategy to a tee.
The Fantasy Man Recommends: Brandon Jacobs, Fred Jackson, Felix Jones(If Barber out), Darren Sproles(If LT out)

Wide Receivers
It's ridiculous how much these guys change week to week. You have to expect Randy Moss to have a big game at some point soon but I might wait on him until Tom Brady figures it all out. Greg Jennings makes sense to me since I feel that Aaron Rodgers should have a big game and since Donald Driver was the WR of choice last week, I think Jennings is still the real go-to guy. So I don't see Driver having the game, I see Jennings having the game this week. No statistical proof, just a hunch to be honest. Matt Schaub against Jacksonville makes Andre Johnson a solid pick to have another decent game and you have to like what Vincent Jackson has done the last 2 weeks. Can he score a TD in 3 consecutive weeks? That's the question with V-Jax. The 60 yards will be there but will he get the TD? And lastly, while everyone is loving New York's Mario Manningham, don't get caught up in the hype. Manningham is a nice option heading into week 3 but it's New York's Steve Smith who is really Eli Manning's go-to WR making Smith a less riskier pick than Manningham and a player who fits The Fantasy Man Strategy.

The Fantasy Man Recommends: Greg Jennings, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Steve Smith

Tight Ends
It's hard not to like the Jets' Dustin Keller as Mark Sanchez' go-to guy in the end zone. We all know young QB's need a quality TE to dump the ball off too and Sanchez-Keller fit that mold. Kellen Winslow looks like a TD hog and with Antonio Bryant hurt, it's tough to pass on Winslow despite the Bucs playing the Giants. Chris Cooley against Detroit makes sense as it seems that Cooley is the best receiving option in Washington at this point. Choose wisely though, there's not to many solid options going week to week and usually, there's a TE or two that emerge later in the season. This is a position where you are probably going to need to look at the best match ups and the higher ranked TE's early.

The Fantasy Man Recommends: Kellen Winslow, Dustin Keller, Chris Cooley

Offense
Green Bay
at St. Louis - Green Bay can easily score the 24+ points.

Cleveland at Baltimore - Baltimore defense great, Cleveland stinks all-around
Miami at San Diego - Chargers can win and score 24+ points

Defense
Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Denver all make sense. The sneaky pick of the week would be Denver who has been super solid defensively the past two weeks.


Flag Strategy
I'm willing to bet there are many of you who needed more than 3 flags this week. If you are in that position, I'd make sure I use them on my main player positions like QB, RB, WR, and TE as these are the easiest to predict. Trying to predict a team finish with 24+ points or a defense to hold a team to under 19 points is too tough over a full season. Use your flags on the positions you can more easily predict. If you have to decide between QB, RB, WR and TE, it's TE that will be the toughest to predict later in the season because there is a much smaller list of solid players then the other positions. WR has the most available talent, then RB and QB in my opinion. So use your flags wisely. Think ahead.


Good luck in week 3!

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