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Thursday, November 13, 2008

Chris Mulligan's Week 11 Forecast

Chris Mulligan's Week 11 Forecast

Favorable Matchups

- The Chiefs are taking on the Saints at home this week. The Saints come in with the 26th ranked Pass Defense allowing 248 YPG. This is good news for Dwayne Bowe and the Chiefs’ passing game. Tyler Thigpen has been getting better every week and has turned himself into a respectable QB. Bowe has been somewhat quiet the last couple of weeks and is due for a big game. Another advantage that the Chiefs and Bowe have is that the Saints just lost their best CB, Mike McKenzie. I’m looking for Bowe to bust out. Prediction: 7 Rec 101 RecYds 1 TD.

- Matt Forte is having a ROY type season and has had two big games in a row. The Bears travel to Green Bay this week to take on the 28th ranked Rush Defense of the Packers. Forte has proven himself to be a dual threat out of the backfield and has been a standout in PPR leagues. As if the Pack’s run defense couldn’t suffer anymore, they lose their leading tackler Nick Barnett for the season. Forte continues to roll this week and the Bears get the win in Green Bay. Prediction: 127 RuYds 6 Rec 51 RecYds 2 TD.

- As if Kurt Warner and the Cardinals’ passing game wasn’t strong enough, it gets even stronger this week when they go up against the woeful Seahawks. Seattle’s pass defense is ranked 30th in the league, allowing 266 PaYds/G. Warner is going to unleash his phenomenal receivers on the porous Seattle defense. The only thing that could hamper his stats is if they blow the Seahawks out early and Matt Leinart gets some mop up duty. Prediction: 323 PaYds 3 TD.

- Joseph Addai owners have been extremely disappointed by his injuries and lack of production this year. It’s not too late to save himself from being a huge bust. The Colts will take on the Texas at home this week and which gives Addai a chance for redemption. The Texans usually play the Colts tough but they have been horrid on the road this year. The Texans come in with the 23rd ranked run defense allowing 130 Yds/G. I think Addai breaks out on Sunday and has his best game of the year. Prediction: 127 RuYds 4 Rec 33 RecYds 2 TD.

- The Bears’ defense just isn’t what is has been in the last few years. They’ve been great against the run but horrendous against the pass, ranked 31st and giving up 267 Yds/G. It could mean a big day for Packers’ receiver Greg Jennings. The Pack have had trouble scoring lately but this could be the matchup they’ve been looking for to get them going. Jennings is going to cause problems for the less than stellar Bears’ pass D. Prediction: 9 Rec 129 RecYds 1 TD.

Unfavorable Matchups

- Eli Manning has been winning games but hasn’t had a very good statistical season. Expect more of the same if not worse this Sunday as they take on the league’s best defense. The Ravens have been as good as it gets this year and they will be pumped up for this game. If the Giants have any shot of winning this one they’re going to have to focus heavily on their run game. This doesn’t bode well for Eli owners. Prediction: 171 PaYds 1 TD.

- The Cowboys have to travel to Washington this week where the Redskins’ defense has been stellar. The Skins have the 6th best run defense and Marion Barber hasn’t been great to begin with. Having Tony Romo back could open up the running game for Dallas but I don’t see it happening. Prediction: 45 RuYds 0 TD.

- Calvin Johnson has been absolutely awesome this year. But now he has a QB who hasn’t played in a full game in almost a year. Too add to this weekend’s dilemma, the Lions have to go to Carolina and take on the Panther’s 2nd ranked Pass Defense which is allowing under 200 Yds/G. Johnson has played well no matter who the QB is but he is up against a wall this weekend. Prediction: 5 Rec 55 RecYds.

League Notes and Observations

- Willie Parker could be back for the Steelers this week when they go up against the Chargers. It looks like he will play but it’s still uncertain. In either case I still like Mewelde Moore to get a lot of touches this week. He has been too productive not to get him involved and the Steelers may want to deflect some of the damage that Parker will take.

- It’s looking more and more likely that Kyle Orton will start this week at Green Bay. The Packers defense has been nothing to write home about this year and if he does play I expect him to play pretty well. The key will be how he can plant and throw and how well the Bears O-Line protects him. The Packers haven’t had much of a pass rush this year so I don’t see the latter being a problem.

- I’m looking for the Eagles’ Defense to have a big day on Sunday. I feel that their DB matchup well against the Bengals’ receivers and Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t scaring anybody. Cedric Benson has been running pretty well but doesn’t pose a threat to the Eagles’ D. Getting Victor Abiamiri back adds another quality pass rusher to the D-Line as well.

- Patrick Hillis looks to be the man in the Broncos’ backfield this week and has shown that he can do some good things. He’s also a pretty good receiving threat as well. The Saints’ defense hasn’t progressed at all this year and Hillis could have himself a pretty good game.

- Darren McFadden is said to be ready to play this week but the turf toe is still bothersome to him. How much he will play is the big question. Michael Bush has been getting carries but hasn’t shown much and Justin Fargas has been a disappointment. If D-Mac is good to go then I expect him to get plenty of touches this week. The Raiders have to show some signs of life on offense and they need to play their number one draft pick. McFadden could have a productive day on Sunday.

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