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Saturday, November 22, 2008

Chris Mulligan's Week 12 Forecast

Chris Mulligan's Week 12 Forecast

I can’t believe that it’s already Week 12 of the National Football League and that means it’s getting down to crunch time and everyone’s looking to make that playoff push. Other people are trying to knock their buddies out of the playoff race. It’s the most exciting time of the fantasy football season. Six weeks to go, so let’s get into what you need to know to win this week.

Favorable Matchups

- You might think I’m nuts for giving you this one but I believe that this is the week that Roy Williams actually comes back to life and does something productive. I’m thinking that Tony Romo knocked off the rust last week and is ready to come out firing against the 49ers 24th ranked pass defense. It looks like Mike Singletary has his guys playing a little better but Dallas has to keep the momentum going if they want to make the playoffs. They need Roy Williams to step up and this is the week it happens. Predictions: 6 rec, 97 RecYds, 2 TD.

- Dallas Clark has always been Peyton Manning’s go-to guy and I think Peyton is really going to have to depend on him this week against the Chargers. Now you’re thinking “The Chargers, come on!”. The Chargers are going to be a more aggressive defense under Ron Rivera and Chico knows that the way to beat the Colts is to pressure Manning. If Manning is facing blitzes all day then he’s going to half to dump it off quick to his tight end. Prediction: 8 rec, 91 RecYds 1 TD.

- The Redskins take on the Seattle defense this week which gives the Redskins offense a chance to put up some points this week. Santana Moss was basically shutout last week against the Cowboys. It’s not going to happen this week. I see a scenario where Moss easily goes for over 100 yds against the worst pass defense in the league. Prediction: 7 rec, 145 RecYds 1 TD.

- David Garrard and the Jaguars will host the Vikings this weekend and I’m seeing a good week for Garrard. Minnesota’s defense has been disappointing and hasn’t played well as of late. Now they have to travel all the way down to Jacksonville. The Jags run game will open things up for Garrard and the passing game. The Jags are due for a big game and after facing the Titans defense last week, the Vikings D will seem like the Washington Huskies D. Prediction: 282 PaYds, 2 TD, 45 RuYds.

- Jamal Lewis has been running great lately and he doesn’t stop this week. Cleveland will take on the 24th ranked run defense of the Texans in Cleveland. The Browns are going to need a big game from Lewis with Brady Quinn’s hurt finger possibly hampering the passing game. Lewis continues to run hard and carry the Browns on his back on Sunday. Prediction: 115 RuYds, 2 TD.

Unfavorable Matchups

- Matt Ryan and the Falcons will face one of the best defenses in the league in the form of the Carolina Panthers. Ryan has been awesome this season but didn’t have a great matchup last week and has an even worse one this week. As much as I’d like to believe that Ryan can fare well against the Panthers D, I just don’t see it happening. Roddy White will get his catches but he might be the only Falcons offensive player getting good fantasy points this week. Prediction: 225 PaYd 1 TD.

- Brian Westbrook is a must start every week but don’t expect a whole lot out of him this week. The Eagles face the Ravens this week and it’s going to be a tough matchup for Westbrook. The only way he gets good points is if you have him in a PPR league as Donovan McNabb may have to dump it off to Westbrook often in the face of pressure. I know that Brandon Jacobs and the Giants running backs had a good game against the Ravens but Ray Lewis will have his boys fired up for this one. Prediction: 65 RuYd, 5 rec 38 Rec Yd.

- The Dolphins will take on a banged up Patriots defense this week but a defense with a chip on it’s shoulder. Ronnie Brown and the Dolphins’ Wildcat offense may have caught the Patriots by surprise the first time but I don’t see it happening again. Bill Belichik will have the Patriots D prepared for whatever the Dolphins have to throw at them. Ronnie Brown hasn’t done a whole lot lately anyways. The Patriots are going to be ready for a little payback so if you have other options, it may be a good week to sit Brown. Prediction: 61 RuYds, 3 rec 29 RecYds.

Game Notes Around the League

- It’s still up in there air whether or not Brandon Jacobs plays this week against the Cardinals. I have a feeling that the Giants sit him this week. This leaves a ton of point opportunities for Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw. Ward is owned in most leagues but Bradshaw is still available in a lot of leagues. The Giants have been using Bradshaw more the last few weeks and he looks to be giving the Giants some fresh legs. I think that Bradshaw is the more explosive runner of the two and has more big play capability. He ran for 96 yds on only 9 carries last week. If he’s available then what are you waiting for?

- It looks as if Reggie Bush will make his return this week but don’t expect him to carry the load right away. Pierre Thomas will still have some value and may even be worth starting this week. Especially so this week since the Saints go up against the Packers and their pathetic run defense.

- With Earnest Graham going on IR, Warrick Dunn is now the main running back for the Bucs. John Gruden still doesn’t know what he’s going to do with Cadiallac Williams yet. He may gets some touches this week but it would be a big risk to start him. He may give you some value in the next few weeks but don’t expect much from him.

- Deion Branch is listed as probable for Sunday but was limited in practice this week with a heel injury. I would advise you to stay away from any Seahawk WR for the foreseeable future. Even though Matt Hasselbeck is back Seattle hasn’t been able to muster much at all on either side of the ball.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Chris Mulligan's Week 11 Forecast

Chris Mulligan's Week 11 Forecast

Favorable Matchups

- The Chiefs are taking on the Saints at home this week. The Saints come in with the 26th ranked Pass Defense allowing 248 YPG. This is good news for Dwayne Bowe and the Chiefs’ passing game. Tyler Thigpen has been getting better every week and has turned himself into a respectable QB. Bowe has been somewhat quiet the last couple of weeks and is due for a big game. Another advantage that the Chiefs and Bowe have is that the Saints just lost their best CB, Mike McKenzie. I’m looking for Bowe to bust out. Prediction: 7 Rec 101 RecYds 1 TD.

- Matt Forte is having a ROY type season and has had two big games in a row. The Bears travel to Green Bay this week to take on the 28th ranked Rush Defense of the Packers. Forte has proven himself to be a dual threat out of the backfield and has been a standout in PPR leagues. As if the Pack’s run defense couldn’t suffer anymore, they lose their leading tackler Nick Barnett for the season. Forte continues to roll this week and the Bears get the win in Green Bay. Prediction: 127 RuYds 6 Rec 51 RecYds 2 TD.

- As if Kurt Warner and the Cardinals’ passing game wasn’t strong enough, it gets even stronger this week when they go up against the woeful Seahawks. Seattle’s pass defense is ranked 30th in the league, allowing 266 PaYds/G. Warner is going to unleash his phenomenal receivers on the porous Seattle defense. The only thing that could hamper his stats is if they blow the Seahawks out early and Matt Leinart gets some mop up duty. Prediction: 323 PaYds 3 TD.

- Joseph Addai owners have been extremely disappointed by his injuries and lack of production this year. It’s not too late to save himself from being a huge bust. The Colts will take on the Texas at home this week and which gives Addai a chance for redemption. The Texans usually play the Colts tough but they have been horrid on the road this year. The Texans come in with the 23rd ranked run defense allowing 130 Yds/G. I think Addai breaks out on Sunday and has his best game of the year. Prediction: 127 RuYds 4 Rec 33 RecYds 2 TD.

- The Bears’ defense just isn’t what is has been in the last few years. They’ve been great against the run but horrendous against the pass, ranked 31st and giving up 267 Yds/G. It could mean a big day for Packers’ receiver Greg Jennings. The Pack have had trouble scoring lately but this could be the matchup they’ve been looking for to get them going. Jennings is going to cause problems for the less than stellar Bears’ pass D. Prediction: 9 Rec 129 RecYds 1 TD.

Unfavorable Matchups

- Eli Manning has been winning games but hasn’t had a very good statistical season. Expect more of the same if not worse this Sunday as they take on the league’s best defense. The Ravens have been as good as it gets this year and they will be pumped up for this game. If the Giants have any shot of winning this one they’re going to have to focus heavily on their run game. This doesn’t bode well for Eli owners. Prediction: 171 PaYds 1 TD.

- The Cowboys have to travel to Washington this week where the Redskins’ defense has been stellar. The Skins have the 6th best run defense and Marion Barber hasn’t been great to begin with. Having Tony Romo back could open up the running game for Dallas but I don’t see it happening. Prediction: 45 RuYds 0 TD.

- Calvin Johnson has been absolutely awesome this year. But now he has a QB who hasn’t played in a full game in almost a year. Too add to this weekend’s dilemma, the Lions have to go to Carolina and take on the Panther’s 2nd ranked Pass Defense which is allowing under 200 Yds/G. Johnson has played well no matter who the QB is but he is up against a wall this weekend. Prediction: 5 Rec 55 RecYds.

League Notes and Observations

- Willie Parker could be back for the Steelers this week when they go up against the Chargers. It looks like he will play but it’s still uncertain. In either case I still like Mewelde Moore to get a lot of touches this week. He has been too productive not to get him involved and the Steelers may want to deflect some of the damage that Parker will take.

- It’s looking more and more likely that Kyle Orton will start this week at Green Bay. The Packers defense has been nothing to write home about this year and if he does play I expect him to play pretty well. The key will be how he can plant and throw and how well the Bears O-Line protects him. The Packers haven’t had much of a pass rush this year so I don’t see the latter being a problem.

- I’m looking for the Eagles’ Defense to have a big day on Sunday. I feel that their DB matchup well against the Bengals’ receivers and Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t scaring anybody. Cedric Benson has been running pretty well but doesn’t pose a threat to the Eagles’ D. Getting Victor Abiamiri back adds another quality pass rusher to the D-Line as well.

- Patrick Hillis looks to be the man in the Broncos’ backfield this week and has shown that he can do some good things. He’s also a pretty good receiving threat as well. The Saints’ defense hasn’t progressed at all this year and Hillis could have himself a pretty good game.

- Darren McFadden is said to be ready to play this week but the turf toe is still bothersome to him. How much he will play is the big question. Michael Bush has been getting carries but hasn’t shown much and Justin Fargas has been a disappointment. If D-Mac is good to go then I expect him to get plenty of touches this week. The Raiders have to show some signs of life on offense and they need to play their number one draft pick. McFadden could have a productive day on Sunday.

Friday, November 7, 2008

Fantasy Football Week 10 Forecast

Chris Mulligan's Week 10 Forecast

Favorable Matchups

- The Chiefs and Tony Gonzalez take on the Chargers this week in San Diego. The Chargers defense is now headed up by former Bears D Coordinator Ron Rivera but they are still the worst pass defense in the league. Not even Rivera can turn this mess around in one week. Gonzalez has had at least 6 catches in the last three weeks and is red hot. I’m looking for a big game from him. Prediction: 8 Rec, 87 RecYds, 1 TD.

- Matt Ryan will lead the Falcons at home this week against the Saints. The Saints have the 23rd ranked passing defense and were just shredded by the Chargers two weeks ago in London. Ryan has thrown for 2 TD three times in the last four games. Ryan is turning into a star before our eyes and the Saints will be the next stepping stone this week. Prediction: 278 PaYds, 3 TD.

- Speaking of stars in the making, Calvin Johnson is turning into a super-beast. The Lions have question marks at the QB position but they have a good matchup against the Jaguars this week. The Jags have the 21st ranked pass defense and just lost their leading tackler Mike Henderson. Johnson has touchdowns in the last four games and the streak continues on Sunday. Prediction: 7 Rec, 89 RecYds, 2 TD.

- Ronnie Brown has the pleasure of taking on the one of the worst defenses in the league this week in the form of the Seahawks. He hasn’t gone for 100 yds in a month but this is the week that he breaks out. It seems like a player is dropping everyday for the Seahawks and they can’t patch them up quick enough. A horrible Seattle offense gives more time for the Dolphins offense to rack up yards. Prediction: 115 RuYds, 2 TD.

- LaDanian Tomlinson showed signs of turning things around last week by finally going over 100 yds. What better way to keep things rolling than going up against the worst run defense in the league in the Chiefs. LT hasn’t scored a TD in a month but he could absolutely go off this week. Prediction: 124 RuYds, 5 Rec 55 RecYds, 3 TD.

Unfavorable Matchups

- The Titans travel to Chicago to face the Bears and the 6th ranked run defense. It’s also supposed to be very cold on Sunday. This does not bode well for LenDale White and Chris Johnson. The Titans duo has been better than anyone could have expected but this could be the week that they get shut down and suffer their first loss. Prediction: White- 38 RuYds 1 TD Johnson- 55 RuYds, 4 Rec, 28 RecYds.

- The Texans lose Matt Schaub at the worst possible time as they have to take on the best defense in the league this week in the Ravens. With the pass game taking a hit, it’s going to be up to Steve Slaton to carry the team. Good luck with that. The Ravens are giving up a mere 64 RuYds a game. Slaton has been outstanding but he is running into a buzz saw this week. Prediction: 59 RuYds, 3 Rec 31 RecYds.

- The Colts are slowly starting to turn the offense around for the better. The worst thing that could happen right now is a game against the Steelers. They play the Steelers. Whatever momentum they had going into week 10 gets erased this week. Bad numbers all around for Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, and Joseph Addai. The one player who could have a good game is Dallas Clark.

- Eli Manning and the Giants have to travel to Philly this week to take on Jim Johnson’s defense which is never something that a team looks forward to. Eli did some good things last week and some bad things as well. The Eagles cause people to do bad things. It may be a good week to bench Eli if you have a quality backup. Prediction: 179 PaYds, 1 TD.

Scouting Free Agents

- Michael Jenkins has a hot QB and a favorable matchup this week. He also saw the end zone twice last week. Matt Ryan could try to target him more often. He could be a good start this week as a third WR or Flex player.

- Mark Bradley has suddenly become a big part of the Chiefs offense. He has 10 catches for 115 yds and a TD since joining the team. He also has a favorable matchup this week against the Chargers. He may be a guy to pick up and hold on to.

- For those people in IDP leagues, a DL to look at this week could be Chris Long. The Jets have had trouble keeping Brett Favre on his feet and Long could record every D-Lineman’s favorite sack. A sack against the Iron Man.